Mastering Complexity: How Future Leaders Can Excel in a Multifaceted World
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Thanks to technology, the world has become a much smaller place. In today's world, it's just as easy to have a conversation with your spouse in the next room as it is to have a virtual brainstorming session with a team spread across every corner of the globe. New products are also popping up at a rapid pace. With artificial intelligence, extended reality devices (XR), and other upcoming technological shifts, the world is set to experience an extraordinary future.
I'm a firm believer that we have only scratched the surface when it comes to the changes in the way we work. Specifically, the management styles we see today are on their way out, and the core principles of leadership are undergoing a massive overhaul.
The more pessimistic and risk-averse side of me is also full of caution, especially when I stop looking at things from a consumer point of view and focus on business. As a leader and someone who manages other leaders, I often ponder what the long-term implications of change at this scale will be. From my perspective, the impact will be significant and constantly evolving. While change always brings forth a bit of worry, I still am taking an optimistic view of things. The opportunities that lie in front of us will be enormous.
In my opinion, the way we lead people, processes, and projects is still in dire need of transformation to keep up with the pace of disruption. The titles of managers and leaders either have outdated skill sets or are too narrowly focused compared to what the workforces of the future require. Looking at the titles themselves, I believe there is a strong case that these roles in the future will merge and not sit at different ends of the spectrum, as many articles today portray them.
To put it simply, the leaders of tomorrow need to shed traditional skills that are easily replicable through other means, such as artificial intelligence, and instead, acquire a new set of core competencies to thrive in the world of tomorrow.
One of the core competencies that has already become critical to acquire is our ability to navigate complexity. The stakeholders we manage, the systems we're building, and the scale of the services we're offering are at an all-time high and steadily climbing. In this deep dive, we're going to identify the six skills that make up the category I refer to as "Complexity Mapping," which are as follows:
Systems Thinking
Risk Assessment
Stakeholder Analysis
Problem Solving
Resilience Planning
Cross-Functional Leadership
Before we jump into each of the 6 skills, let’s first define what complexity is at it pertains to the workforce.
Complexity refers to the multifaceted nature of the modern working environment. It arises from various interconnected and disconnected factors, including globalization, organizational structure, technological advancements, and evolving customer expectations.
Mapping and identifying complexity at this scale requires substantial effort. You won't be able to master all six skills in a day, and I might even dedicate future articles to look deeper into each one in the future. For this deep dive, I’ll only be aiming to introduce each skill and explain why they will be crucial for future leaders.
Now, let's explore the six skills in detail.
#1. Systems Thinking
The projects we're managing today encompass numerous interconnected parts, each with its own set of dependencies. Successfully handling these interdependencies and deriving solutions, efficiencies, and impacts is what’s referred to as systems thinking.
Let's try to put this into context. First, consider a solution you aim to build. It could be a new product, a service, or a shift to a different process. Regardless of the specific solution, its components can number in the thousands. Some parts cannot be built until others are ready, and some rely on vendors you have hired due to their specialized skills. Examining the solution in its entirety and understanding the interconnections can be quite complex.
Now, let's shift our focus to the human aspect: the stakeholders. When assessing each individual stakeholder, you'll notice that they have their own desires, values, and expectations regarding the final deliverables, amongst other things. As you know, there are rarely ever just one or two stakeholders involved in the projects being led today. With project teams, vendors and end users spanning in the hundreds and located across the globe, managing interdependencies can become overwhelming.
Both the solution you’re leading and the stakeholders within can be seen as broad systems. Within them are many multiples of smaller systems that are segmented due to a commonality and are linked to each other in sometimes unique ways.
Leaders of the future will need to take a broad, overarching view of their projects, segment identified components into systems, and then aim to continuously look for links to push further into new areas. Adopting a systems thinking mindset will encourage a deeper understanding of complex problems, allowing the leader to make connections to seemingly disparate areas and help identify unanticipated negative consequences.
#2. Risk Assessment
The true definition of risk revolves around uncertainty, encompassing both negative uncertainties (threats) and potentially positive ones (opportunities). With the world moving into a state of accelerating growth, uncertainty will become a part of your everyday life. In this context, the importance of risk assessments becomes evident, transitioning from being considered a 'good-to-have' skill to an absolutely critical one.
Every new advancement in technology and its impact on the workforce brings about varying levels of uncertainty. These risks can have both short-term and long-term effects and can disrupt different parts of the process.
The traditional method of identifying, scoring, and creating mitigation plans for each risk will no longer suffice for future leaders. Instead, what was once a sequential process must now become highly iterative. Leaders will need to regularly meet with their teams to monitor identified risks, control risks that are materializing, and continuously identify new ones that are bound to arise. This iterative approach to risk management will become essential in navigating the complexities of the evolving landscape.
By adopting this approach, leaders can proactively address risks as they emerge, minimizing their impact on the organization and capitalizing on potential opportunities. It allows for a more agile and responsive approach to risk mitigation, enabling leaders to adapt their strategies and tactics in real-time.
As for the icing on the cake, the iterative risk management process fosters collaboration and knowledge sharing within teams. By regularly meeting and discussing risks, leaders can tap into the collective expertise of their teams, uncovering valuable insights and perspectives that may have otherwise been overlooked.
#3. Stakeholder Analysis
The concept of identifying and analyzing stakeholders should not be new to you. People will continue to play a pivotal role in driving organizations forward, and the need for leaders to guide stakeholders through continuous journeys of disruption will remain highly valuable.
What will change is the depth required to uncover the intricate layers of competing and interconnected forces at play. There are three key elements to effectively analyze stakeholders in this new era of leadership.
Understanding the real dynamics of influence: The ability to assess your stakeholders and determine who holds decision-making power, possesses unique expertise, or has the right relationships to make a significant impact.
Uncovering multiple layers of impact: In a landscape of constant disruption, different levels of impact come into play. You must identify how changes affect the organization upstream, as well as the stakeholders overseeing it, and downstream, including support staff, end-users, and other individuals involved.
Identifying intricate values: The ability to investigate a series of symptoms present within your stakeholder groups (emotions) and extract the underlying values that are causing these symptoms.
Leaders who have a firm grasp of the tools required to gain a comprehensive 360-degree view of their entire suite of stakeholders will possess the superpower to create allies, develop winning products, and achieve buy-in with significantly less friction and waste.
#4. Problem Solving
Keeping up with a constantly evolving landscape is no easy task. To compensate, leaders must view problem-solving through a different lens. While it is important to manage problems that directly impact their teams and functions, equal effort should be dedicated to examining challenges across functions, environments, and business models.
This is a concept that many find challenging to grasp. The most significant adjustment for leaders will involve becoming comfortable with navigating through different levels of uncertainty and ambiguity. Leaders who possess a growth mindset will tackle such challenges with a balanced approach, actively seeking out opportunities as much as they focus on resolving the negative aspects.
Challenge number 2. Leaders must also embrace the art of experimentation. They should treat mistakes made by their teams, as well as their own, as necessary steps towards potentially discovering new opportunities altogether.
Integrating technology as an enabler of problem-solving and solutioning is perhaps the most daunting tasks for leaders. Tools like artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics should be leveraged to gain insights, analyze complex data sets, and generate entirely new solutions. Treating the next wave of technology as a stakeholder itself may be the way of the future.
Finally, leaders need to be investigators, working with their teams to uncover the root causes of issues rather than merely identifying symptoms. Having a knack for truly solving problems versus their symptoms will be a game changer for leaders and their organizations, especially those that can teach this skill at scale.
#5. Resilience Planning
Managers may have once gotten away with a reactive approach to challenges, but in today's rapidly evolving landscape, this strategy will prove detrimental to both their personal brand and the entire organization. With the accelerating nature of change, it's imperative for managers to embrace a proactive approach to transformation. Failing to do so not only risks tarnishing their reputation but also undermines the success of the organization as a whole.
The iPhone's rapid disruption of the smartphone market, revolutionizing hardware and contributing to the downfall of Blackberry, serves as a stark reminder that leaders who grow complacent with their current approach are susceptible to similar scenarios in the future.
To thrive in the coming era, future leaders must adopt a mindset of resilience planning. This entails proactively mapping out potential scenarios and developing robust plans to address them. Tomorrow's leaders will weave resiliency into the very fabric of their department and projects.
To start building your skillset in resiliency planning, I recommend adopting a tool known as the "resilience capability canvas." This tool provides a framework for analyzing, strategizing, and planning for resilience under multiple conditions.
Here are the key components of this tool:
Foundational Assessment: This section serves as the initial step in the process. Here, you compile information on your organization's current resilience levels, focusing on key strengths, potential vulnerabilities (threats), and areas of potential improvement (opportunities).
Scenario Planning: This area enables you to proactively identify potential disruptions that may impact critical aspects of your business. These disruptions can occur at various levels, ranging from department-specific challenges to existential threats to the organization as a whole. Similar to the pre-mortem technique and general risk assessment, it is essential to consider both opportunities and threats. Encourage your teams to think creatively and collaborate in this process.
Adaptive Capacity: I discovered this approach through KPMG and their comprehensive article titled "Building Adaptive Capacity," which dives into handling the implications of Covid-19. Given we’re looking at disruption as a whole, I believe it applies well to the resilience capability canvas. It's crucial to understand that Adaptive Capacity aims to alleviate the emotional strain caused by disruptions and swiftly implement strategies to rectify the situation. When viewed through the lens of the resilience capabilities canvas, it is important to examine the scenarios you have mapped out with your team at the previous step and identify how to address potential problems, strengthen resource allocation, and clarify complex details. Regardless of the methods you choose, the objective is to foster a culture of continuous learning, experimentation, and flexibility to empower your workforce.
Stakeholder Engagement: In Step 4, we revisit and review the first three steps that you compiled with the team. The key question we ask is: 'Which stakeholders will play a crucial role in aiding the execution of our strategy to mitigate disruption and build resilience?' Make a comprehensive list of individuals who possess expertise in the mapped-out scenarios or have relevant influence and experience related to any of the Adaptive Capacity strategies you have identified.
Resilience Metrics: Once you have determined the direction you are headed, you'll need a compass to guide you on your progress and ensure you're heading in the right direction. Spend a substantial amount of time with your teams to uncover how you will measure the success of your resilience plan. You can choose to focus on either leading indicators or lagging indicators. Ultimately, it is recommended to limit the number of metrics to no more than three.
Continuity & Recovery: Finally, plan out how existing operations will continue to run during and after the disruptions you have identified. By having plans A, B, and even C in place ahead of time, you can eliminate emotions from the situation if your anticipated scenarios become a reality.
Resilience planning will no longer be an afterthought but an integral part of leadership, enabling organizations to navigate disruptions with agility, seize opportunities, and emerge stronger than ever.
#6. Cross-Functional Leadership
The boundaries between departments and functions are beginning to blur, and the need for leaders to navigate in this way of working is becoming more and more vital.
While cross-functional leadership will continue to be essential for gaining alignment when working on large-scale projects that touch many areas, in the future, leaders will need to see this skill as a powerful driver of idea generation and bringing them to reality through execution excellence. Viewing the need to harness the collective intelligence across the entire organization as the true value driver for hyper-growth is the best way to thrive in a complex landscape.
Having said that, possessing exceptional leadership skills and the ability to persuade and craft a compelling narrative will be crucial, especially considering that most of this group won't be reporting to you. The greatest leaders embrace diversity in all its forms and leverage it as a source of competitive advantage. Additionally, they are comfortable with constructive conflicts and disagreements because they understand that these are the foundation for true problem-solving.
Conclusion
My aim with this article is to provide a new path in leadership and management for navigating a world where complex projects have become the new normal. More importantly, I want to emphasize that in a world of uncertainty, maintaining a positive outlook is crucial. The opportunities for improvement are greater than ever, and as leaders, it is up to us to guide our teams towards newer and better landscapes of work.